Regional Spotlight: Growth Opportunities in the Southeast

Fast Facts

The Southeast (as defined by the map on the right) is the 3rd fastest growing region in the past 5 years and is receiving growing attention, investment, and in-migration.
Companies looking to capitalize on a large market size will find ample opportunity throughout counties in Florida, with additional options near Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, and greater DC.
Companies looking to capitalize on population growth will again find Florida as a popular spot, but also can look to emerging mid-to-large markets like Myrtle Beach, greater Nashville, Raleigh, and Bentonville, Arkansas.
Two key themes we see accelerating in the region are:
- Businesses are investing for growth outside of traditional coastal urban cores in emerging Southeast cities.
- In large urban markets, population growth is happening on the outskirts of the county, not downtown centers.

When starting the journey of where to expand organically or acquire, many businesses want to know:

Is the market size large enough to support my product and investment to expand?
Is the region growing?
Are my target customers in the area?

Targeted and relevant data guides better answers to these questions. The Southeast is a market gaining traction and momentum as migration patterns are showing people moving to the region for its climate, cost of living, and growing opportunities.

Below, we’ll share how the region segments when considering different data points like market size, growth, and income.

Demographic Insights

Market Size

The Southeast has several large and scalable markets. By our data, there are 67 counties spread across the Southeast with at least 250,000 population.

Over a third - 24 - are in Florida, spanning the coasts and central Orlando area. Beyond Florida, businesses will still find opportunity at this market size in places like:

North Carolina - Raleigh, Charlotte Asheville, Greensboro
South Carolina - Charleston, Greenville, Columbia, Myrtle Beach
Tennessee - Knoxville, Nashville, Chattanooga, Memphis
Alabama - Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile
Georgia - Atlanta, Savannah
Virginia - Greater DC, Richmond, Virginia Beach

*Our custom-built web app for quickly finding growth markets that meet size, growth, and location critiera.*

Businesses looking to maximize their market size will benefit from looking all the way South to Florida. The largest counties by population size in the Southeast are:

Miami-Dade County, FL - 2.7M
Broward County, FL (North of Miami) - 1.9M
Palm Beach County, FL - 1.5M

Outside of Florida, the largest counties are:

Fairfax County, VA (Outside of DC) - 1.15M
Wake County, NC (Raleigh): 1.1M
Mecklenburg County, NC (Charlotte): 1.1M

Counties are not homogenous size boundaries, meaning that large population size can be partially a function of a larger land area, but population size can still give us a good proxy for populous areas.

Population Growth

Businesses looking to capitalize on a growing market will also benefit from looking to Florida.

There are 42 counties in the Southeast with at least 5% population growth and 250,000 population, of which 19 are in Florida. The top 3 counties with a population of at least 250,000 by population growth are:

Osceola County (south of Orlando) - 21.9%
St. Johns County (on the coast south of Jacksonville) - 21.7%
Lake County (west of Orlando) - 18.1%.

Outside of Florida, we’re seeing high growth in mid-to-large (250,000+ population) markets like:

Rutherford County, TN (greater Nashville) - 15.6%
Horry County, SC (Myrtle Beach) - 14.8%
Loudon County, VA (west of D.C.) - 14.1%
Benton County, AR (Bentonville) - 13.7%

Considering both market size and high growth, we’ve identified 16 counties that exceed 250,000 population and had 10%+ 5-year population growth. Nine are in Florida, with others scattered across other Southeast states.

In particular, we see the area in and around central Florida (Orlando metro area) to be both large and growing. Four of the 16 regional counties fitting the size and growth characteristics are in or border Orlando.

Other representative markets with these size and growth characteristics outside Florida are:

Wake County (Raleigh), NC
Rutherford County (Nashville / Murfreesboro), TN
Benton County (Bentonville), AR
Cherokee County (greater Atlanta), GA
York County (south of Charlotte), SC.

Household Income

Businesses that cater to households with high income will see the most opportunity in Virginia, notably the areas near the border of Washington DC. Outside of Virginia there’s market size and wealth in the suburban counties north of Atlanta, south of Cincinnati, and south of Nashville, in addition to the county that contains Raleigh, NC.

In total, we’ve identified 27 counties with at least 100,000 population and $80,000 median household income.

Notably absent on this map are several of the fast-growing coastal Florida regions where we know income concentrates, like Naples or West Palm Beach. In these areas, we find a divide between the temporary (wealthier) seasonal residents and full-time residents on which the data is reported.

As more temporary residents convert to permanent residents - a trend that has emerged during COVID - we may see some of these counties start to see increasing income levels across the board.

Regional Themes to Watch:

In the data and our work, we’ve seen two consistent trends emerging in the Southeast region

Businesses are investing for growth outside of traditional coastal urban cores in emerging Southeast cities.
Population growth is happening outside city centers.

The emergence of Southeast cities as growth markets

The first place many brands look for growth is in the large, urban markets. There’s higher market opportunity, oftentimes a higher willingness to try new brands, and a constantly refreshing population with new graduates.

The Southeast was at best a secondary consideration for many businesses. It may have previously been too small or too out of the way, but its growth and size have now moved it up as a place for brands to be.

Financial talent is migrating to Miami and tech talent to Atlanta. Raleigh, NC was chosen as the site for Apple’s east coast headquarters. These companies are bringing high paying jobs to these areas and the population is oftentimes moving from larger Northeast/Mid-Atlantic cities.

These migration patterns drive a desire for new restaurants and amenities that were found in the larger cities, in addition to the need for more essential services like healthcare and housing.

The “winners” of the Southeast are the cities that have (1) A head start on commercial and residential infrastructure (2) Better weather than Northeast cities (3) Relatively better cost of living and (4) A unique or compelling value proposition to sell potential residents or businesses.

We see momentum on the above factors for cities like:

Atlanta
Miami
Raleigh and Charlotte
Nashville

Another geographic advantage of the Southeast is its proximity to other urban hubs. Businesses, particularly those that are smaller, want easy access to new markets in the event they need to be on-the-ground to solve a problem. North Carolina, for example, has flight times of ~2 hours or less as far north as Boston or south to Miami, and anywhere in-between, making it an easy trip for executives in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.

Growth outside city centers

Population growth is a critical data point that many businesses evaluate when considering where to expand next. The cost and risk to enter a new market is substantial, and a growing population is one indicator that a market may be worthy of making that investment.

A common theme of population growth that we’re seeing in these areas is that it’s been accelerating outside of - but near - city centers. Our analysis across markets consistently shows the divide and disconnect between where the population is today and where it’s growing.

Consider a couple examples of this in counties that we’ve discussed in this article.

In Wake County, North Carolina - home to Raleigh - the population is concentrated in the center of the county, but population growth is on the further edges (darker orange on the map is higher population / growth). Likewise, in Orange County - Orlando - Florida, we see the same theme of suburban sprawl and growth at the outer edges of the city.

These are just two examples of a theme that carries across nearly all counties we’ve researched.

The population is pushing from city centers outward, likely as a result of (1) rising home prices in cities (2) the emergence of hybrid work and (3) increasing amenities and development in suburban areas.

The implications for this are that brands that used to find success in mixed use, urban, dense downtown environments are now shifting their attention outward to capture the consumer where they are today, not necessarily 5 years ago.

Suburban population growth means a concept that might have previously only worked in a downtown might now also work in a suburb where a hybrid worker is spending 2-3 days per week, with a focus on how a suburban location may need to look different than an urban one.

Concluding Thoughts

Growth in the Southeast is outpacing most other regions, and there’s a diverse set of markets to enter into across the area.

We see the strongest opportunity for businesses like:

Home services companies that can benefit from growing housing stock
Healthcare businesses that benefit from more favorable population to provider ratios
Premium consumer brands shifting from DTC to a physical footprint (i.e. Peloton, Warby Parker) that can capture urban migrants

For businesses with a base in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, we see strong desire to start closer to home in the Carolinas or Tennessee, making markets like Raleigh, Charlotte, and Nashville attractive places.

That said, not all businesses find that the exact same business model succeeds in these new locations, and as such, understanding what makes a market unique from current locations can be a valuable exercise to be prepared for new market growth.

Interested in this topic? Get in touch with me here or by email at jordan@jordanbean.com.